Sitting here waiting for things to get worse is causing me excruciating pain. I don’t know if I should write, tweet, pray or just sit here silently watching the screen while tears fall down my face.
I am not being dramatic, but i’m also not naive. The political/realistic part of me has been assessing the situation for quite sometime. Friends have warned of this, and analysts as well. I concluded that violent clashes are highly likely (view previous posts, specifically the one on 100 days after the Revolution). But the dreamer part of me hoped that the peaceful revolution would prevail. Political scientists never predicted and could have never believed that a peaceful movement could happen in Yemen, but it did. It did because we dared to dream, and we dared to hope and believe that something positive could happen.
In the past months, I hoped that Saleh’s warnings were psychological warfare and that in the end we will gain our demands peacefully without a war. I hoped that the close proximity of the first brigade and the military would form a balance and cause both sides to avoid firing. I reminded myself that armed tribesmen gave up their weapons in pursuit of a peaceful struggle. Selmya Selmya (peaceful peaceful) slogans and chants filled the square changing the course of Yemen’s history forever.
Today violent clashes have begun, and after police force attacked the home of Sadeq al-Ahmar his body guards responded violently. The fighting is personal between two groups that have had in-fighting for a long time. it is linked to the Revolution because Saleh sees al-Ahmars as main actors behind the Revolution whether that’s true or not.
So far, the fighting is still personalized between two sides and has not yet escalated into a civil war. While tribesmen have joined, the peaceful protesters have not joined the violent resistance and remain committed to peaceful change.
Things are likely to escalate but there is a small chance they may not. We should try and not push things towards escalation and try not to announce that it’s already a war. Lets not make it a self fulfilling prophecy.
In a society where revenge is rampant the consequences of the upcoming days of violence will last a very long time. I just hope that this violence does not escalate into a full blown war and i hope that the international community will speak out SOON before it is too late.